Tennis match analysis: scores, surface, serve and return

Read the score and format first

Under standard scoring, points within a game progress through love, 15, 30 and 40; deuce requires a two-point margin. A standard seven-point tie-break also requires a two-point margin. Events can use alternative formats, so check the event’s rules before interpreting a deciding set.

The 2026 Rules of Tennis cover games, sets, matches and approved alternatives. The official tennis glossary is a useful companion for unfamiliar terms.

For an invented best-of-three example, a player winning 6–4, losing 3–6 and winning 7–6 has won two sets to one. The last set was close, but the score alone does not reveal the number of break chances, the length of the rallies or how well either player served. Read the score as the result, then use statistics to investigate how it happened.

Compare records on the relevant surface

Record whether the match is on clay, grass or a hard court, and note the event and date. A career record combining every surface answers a different question from a recent sample on the upcoming surface. Neither should be substituted silently for the other.

Make the comparison rule explicit: for example, completed singles matches on the same surface during a stated period. Show the sample size for both players. If one has many relevant matches and the other only a few, the smaller sample deserves a more cautious interpretation.

Check opponent quality and whether the recorded results include retirements or walkovers. Do not turn those statuses into ordinary completed-match observations without explaining the treatment. Our tennis-information overview introduces these distinctions.

Separate serve percentage from points won

The ATP serve statistics distinguish first serves in, first-serve points won, second-serve points won and service games won. Those measures use different denominators. Read the column label before comparing percentages.

The simple average of 75% and 50% is 62.5%, which is wrong for this record because the groups contain different numbers of points. Add the actual wins and attempts. The example also shows why “60% first serves in” does not mean “60% of service points won.”

Then look at the opponent’s return performance using a comparable sample. The ATP return leaderboard separates first-serve return points, second-serve return points, return games and break-point conversion. Keep point-level and game-level measures distinct.

Put break-point percentages beside the attempts

Consider two fictional records: Player A converts two of three break points, while Player B converts ten of twenty. Their percentages are about 66.7% and 50%. The first percentage is higher, but three opportunities provide much less evidence than twenty.

That comparison alone does not establish who returns better. Ask how often each player created chances, who served against them and what happened in the other return points. One decisive point can change a small-sample percentage dramatically.

For the same reason, keep a match summary separate from a forecast. Statistics explain the selected observations; a future match still involves uncertainty and conditions that may differ.

Write a clear pre-match and post-match note

1. Identify the event: date, surface, singles or doubles, and scoring format.
2. Set the sample: period, surface filter and number of completed matches.
3. Compare both sides: serve and return measures using the same definitions.
4. Record unknowns: unconfirmed availability, missing statistics or very small samples.
5. Keep the evidence: source link and the time you checked it.
6. Review afterward: compare the original explanation with the completed score and statistics.

A useful conclusion might read: “The fictional first player won a greater share of first-serve points in the selected sample, but the second player faced different opponents. The evidence supports a serve comparison, not a guaranteed match result.”

The arithmetic and scenarios here are original illustrations. ITF rules and ATP statistics are primary references for definitions and published records; this website does not provide a live match feed or account-specific settlement rules.

Common questions